Myanmar Dissidents Contemplate Concessions

With Myanmar's military government expected to sentence dissident Aung San Suu Kyi to further detention as early as Tuesday, some of her exiled supporters are considering new tactics -- such as negotiating with the regime -- to break a decades-old political stalemate in the troubled Southeast Asian nation.

Take a look at major events in the life of famed dissident Aung San Suu Kyi.

Ms. Suu Kyi faces up to five years in prison for allegedly violating the terms of a government-imposed house arrest in May, when she allowed an uninvited American well-wisher to visit her lakeside home without state approval.

Myanmar officials have said a verdict will come Tuesday, though some analysts say the decision may be delayed due to the poor health of John Yettaw, the American visitor, who is also on trial and has reportedly suffered from epileptic seizures recently. The verdict was delayed once before, after authorities in Myanmar, previously known as Burma, said they needed more time to review the facts in the case.

Analysts and exiles expect the court to eventually find Ms. Suu Kyi guilty, resulting in further detention for the 64-year-old Nobel laureate who has spent nearly 14 of the past 20 years under arrest.

Such an outcome, combined with Myanmar's miserable economic conditions and the likelihood that Ms. Suu Kyi won't be able to participate in elections the government plans for 2010, are prodding exile groups to contemplate new strategies, including seeking negotiations with Myanmar's military regime and possibly dropping some earlier demands that have blocked rapprochement.

Ms. Suu Kyi's supporters have traditionally taken a hard-line approach towards talking with the regime, unless it agrees to free hundreds of political prisoners and recognize the results of a 1990 election won overwhelmingly by Ms. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy Party.

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Associated Press

Supporters of Myanmar's pro-democracy movement demonstrate at the Myanmar Embassy in Tokyo on Saturday.

The military ignored that vote and tightened its grip on the country, locking away opponents and drawing widespread condemnation for its alleged human-rights abLast week, a group of senior opposition leaders, including Sein Win, head of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, which describes itself as Myanmar's government-in-exile, announced plans for a new "proposal for national reconciliation" that involves negotiations with the regime. The proposal reiterates older goals such as the release of political prisoners and a review of the country's constitution, but acknowledges the need for dialogue with the military to make those goals a realityother dissidents are pressing exile leaders to go further and possibly drop calls for the military to honor the 1990 vote if it helps advance the dissidents' other agendas, such as getting Ms. Suu Kyi freed.

Dissident groups plan to discuss further details at a convention in Jakarta, Indonesia on Wednesday and Thursday. At least 10 major dissident groups are expected to attend, including the Women's League of Burma and representatives from the NLD, along with Mr. Sein Win and others. People who intend to participate say it may be the first time in decades so many groups have come together to forge a common position in dealing with the Myanmar junta.

"We're not only thinking about what we want, but what the regime can and cannot accept. It's a move back to the center," says Nyo Ohn Myint, a senior opposition figure who's been in exile in Thailand and the U.S. for 20 years. He says a majority of senior NLD leaders now support some form of compromise with Myanmar's military government, including possibly writing off the 1990 vote.

Mr. Nyo Ohn Myint says he believes Ms. Suu Kyi is also willing to compromise, including accepting some kind of role for the military in government, though it is difficult to confirm Ms. Suu Kyi's views while she is under arrest.

Many dissidents are focusing on the regime's planned 2010 elections. Initially, opposition groups vowed to boycott the election as they believed that no vote overseen by the military could be free and fair. But some dissidents have softened their positions in the belief that participating in a flawed election may be better than sitting it out entirely.

"There is the danger that the main political activists or stakeholders like the NLD and major ethnic groups will be sidelined" if they don't in some way participate in the election, says Thaung Htun, who the government-in-exile calls its representative to the United Nations. "We need to publicly propose an alternative."

Some analysts are skeptical that any new approaches from exiles will yield results. Dialogue requires participation on both sides, and the regime has given little indication in the past that it wants to negotiate, though some dissidents believe that may change if military leaders are given face-saving options that allow them to claim the 2010 election is legitimate. The regime rarely speaks to the foreign media, Western diplomats or high-ranking dissidents, making it difficult to divine its intentions.

Myanmar's myriad exile groups have struggled to reach consensus in the past and the latest discussions could easily break down over the details of how far to go with any national reconciliation plan. Many exiles still view any form of rapprochement as totally unacceptable and worry that any participation in the 2010 election could legitimize a military dictatorship.

"The Burmese are too divided to suddenly put all their history behind them," retired Rutgers University professor and Myanmar expert Josef Silverstein said.

The Jakarta conference was planned in part "to stay relevant to meet the criticism" that older dissident groups are too inflexible, says Sean Turnell, a Myanmar expert at Macquarie University in Sydney.

Dissidents are considering new approaches "probably because things are looking so dire" in the country, with little change in recent years, forcing exiles to look "for a new way," says Monique Skidmore, a Myanmar expert at the University of Canberra in Australia.

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Burma Police Arrest Bomb Plotters

Brig. Gen. Khin Yi answers questions during a press conference, in Rangoon, Burma, 07 Aug 2009

Burma's national police chief says 15 dissidents have been arrested in connection with a plot to plant bombs during the visit of U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon last month.

At a news conference Friday, Burma Police Chief Khin Yi linked the bomb plotters to a number of dissident organizations, including the party of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. A lawyer for the opposition leader denied that charge.

Khin Yi also said at least 20 security personnel have been demoted - and some jailed - for allowing an American to enter Aung San Suu Kyi's home earlier this year.

John Yettaw swam uninvited to the opposition leader's lakeside Rangoon home in early May, and stayed there for two days with her permission. The incident led to Aung San Suu Kyi's arrest on charges of violating the terms of her house arrest.

The opposition leader has spent the last two months at Rangoon's Insein prison where she was put on trial. The court is expected to hand down its verdict on August 11.

The 64-year-old Nobel Peace laureate, who has spent 14 of the last 19 years in some form of detention, faces up to five years in prison.

Sources say Yettaw was admitted to Rangoon General Hospital Monday after suffering seizures. His condition is said to be improving. Yettaw is reported to have diabetes and other illnesses.

Yettaw, along with two of Aung San Suu Kyi's live-in companions, is also being tried in the case. He testified he swam to her home to warn her of a vision he had that she would be assassinated.

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Burmese Opposition Unites at UN

UNITED NATIONS — Exiled opposition leaders from Burma came together at the UN on Friday to present a plan for a democratic future in their homeland and ask the UN to transmit it to the country's military rulers.

The opposition leaders called for the release of Nobel Prize-winning pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners, a dialogue with the regime, credible elections in 2010 and a review of the constitution adopted last year.

A supporter of Aung San Suu Kyi takes part in a demonstration in Tokyo on August 8. The protest was held in conjunction with the anniversary of the "8888" democracy uprising on August 8th, 1988 in Burma. (Photo: Reuters)
The alliance of political parties and ethnic groups asked the UN Security Council and Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon to send its reconciliation plan to the military regime in Burma.

Suu Kyi is on trial for violating the terms of her house arrest after an uninvited American man swam to her lakeside home without permission in May, just before her detention was to end. Opposition leaders say the junta is using the incident to extend her detention ahead of next year's elections.

The charges against 64-year-old Suu Kyi, who has been detained for 14 of the last 20 years, have refocused international outrage on Burma, which has been ruled by its military since 1962. Suu Kyi's opposition party won national elections in 1990, but Burmese generals refused to relinquish power.

Sein Win, a cousin of Suu Kyi and head of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, which describes itself as the country's government-in-exile, called her trial a "mockery of justice."

He said the regime "has made a lot of promises, but if you look at the facts, it's not getting any better" as human rights are violated, villages are destroyed and the country becomes more militarized. He condemned the regime's purported nuclear ambitions.

In Burma on Friday, the regime said it arrested 15 people and accused foreign-based opposition groups and terrorists of plotting explosions during Ban's visit last month and trying to disrupt Suu Kyi's trial.

Jeremy Woodrum, co-founder of the Washington-based US Campaign for Burma, said it's significant that Burma's diverse political and ethnic groups joined in support of the reconciliation initiative.

He said the Security Council should focus on issues it has ignored like the use of child soldiers, the rape of women from minority ethnic groups, forced labor and the destruction of villages.

An arms embargo would severely undermine the military regime, he said.

The opposition's reconciliation program says the country faces a "constitutional crisis."

Woodrum called the constitution an "air-tight" framework for ensuring the military continues to dominate all levers of power, no matter the outcome of any election. The military will appoint 25 percent of the seats in parliament and can easily remove members who act independently, he said.

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Burmese Army Equipped with New Arms

The 400,000-strong Burmese army is now almost fully armed with locally manufactured MA-series weapons, according to several sources within the armed forces and rebel groups.
The sources told The Irrawaddy that the Burmese army—known as the “Tatmadaw”—had equipped all frontline battalions with MA1, MA2, MA3 or MA4 automatic assault rifles.
According to a weapons Web site, securityarms.com, the MA series was manufactured with the help of arms contractor Israeli Military Industries, and was designed similar to the Israeli Galil rifle.
The weapons are expected to be used in conflicts with ethnic rebel groups, in particular the Karen National Union, as the Tatmadaw seeks to extinguish the country’s 60-year-plus insurgency. The Burmese armed forces have one of the world’s most notorious records for atrocities and human rights abuses, such as killing civilians, raping women and conscripting children.
Since the 1950s, the Tatmadaw has traditionally employed German-made G-3 weapons. However, the G-3 assault rifle was considered too heavy for use in jungle warfare and, as the Burmese generals had endured decades of conflict with ethnic groups in Burma’s mountainous border regions, they began manufacture of the MA series in 2002, presumably after signing a license agreement with Israel Military Industries.
The MA1 and MA2 assault rifles are shorter and lighter than the G3, but not as powerful, said the sources.
The MA3 is an assault carbine, basically an MA1 with a side-folding stock, and the MA4 is a grenadier weapon, essentially an MA1 equipped with a single-shot grenade launcher.
Sources told The Irrawaddy that the weapons were manufactured at several factories in Burma, but the main factory is reportedly called Ka Pa Sa No 1, and is situated near Rangoon’s Inya Lake.
Sai Sheng Murng, the deputy spokesman of the rebel Shan State Army-South (SSA), said, “The MA1 and MA2 assault rifles are not heavy, so they are good for carrying to the frontlines. But they are not powerful like the G-3.”
“The MA1s and MA2s are similar to our M16s. In fact, we can use their ammunition in our M16 rifles, but they cannot use our ammunition in their rifles,” he said.
The Burmese army is one of the most battle-hardened forces in Asia, having fought almost continuously against ethnic insurgents and communist guerillas for more than six decades.
However, following the brutal suppression of student-led demonstrations in 1988, the United States and later the European Union imposed an arms embargo on the Burmese regime.
At the time, Burmese democracy activists and international sympathizers lobbied the West German government to prevent sales of G-3 weapons from the Fritz Werner arms manufacturing company going to the Burmese junta.
The German arms manufacturers registered themselves in Burma in the 1990s as Myanmar Fritz Werner Industries Co Ltd, an electrical and electronics company.
However, the photograph of a Japanese journalist, Kenji Nagai, being shot during protests in 2007 by a Burmese soldier holding what would appear to be a G-3 rifle, raised doubts as to whether local production of the German assault rifle was ongoing.
Despite the Western arms embargo, the Burmese military regime has no shortage of arms suppliers—Israel, Russia, Ukraine and China are reportedly the main players.
Meanwhile, recent reports have indicated that Burma has purchased nuclear material from North Korea and harbors ambitions of creating a nuclear arsenal.

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Security Tight on Anniversary of 8888 Uprising

Pro-junta supporters and truckloads of riot police patrolling Burma’s commercial capital on Saturday kept potential demonstrators off the streets on the 21st anniversary of pro-democracy protests that triggered one of the country’s bloodiest uprisings.
The anniversary comes days before a Burmese court rules on whether democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi should be jailed for five years for violating the terms of her house arrest. The Nobel laureate came to prominence during the demonstrations and remains the country’s most popular politician.
The verdict, scheduled for Tuesday, has already been delayed because judges said they needed more time to sort through legal issues. But Burmese scholars say the real reason for the postponement was fears that pro-democracy groups would take to the streets on the anniversary if a guilty ruling was handed down.
Rangoon’s streets were quiet Saturday and security forces were present in much of the crumbling city.
Dozens of riot police and scores of unarmed supporters of the regime were stationed along the main roads and junctions, as well as near the major monasteries and pagodas.
Dozens of barbed wire barricades, some of them freshly painted, were placed on roadsides.
Local media used the anniversary to praise the regime and warn residents not to be taken in by unidentified opponents, most likely pro-democracy groups.
Residents interviewed in Rangoon said they dared not mark the anniversary, knowing they would be quickly arrested and face the prospect of long prison sentences. Most said they had other priorities.
“I have forgotten that today is the anniversary,” said Hla Maung, a 52-year-old trishaw driver. “I wake up every morning thinking how to feed my family of three.”
Outside the country, dozens of demonstrators marked the day with protests in front of the Burmese embassies in the Thai capital of Bangkok and the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur. A small demonstration was also held at the Burmese consulate in Hong Kong.
The anniversary marks the August 8, 1988 demonstrations—known locally as the 8888 uprising—in which more than a million people protested following the government’s sudden demonetization of the currency, which wiped out many people’s savings. Suu Kyi, a political novice at the time, became the face of the movement.
The protests brought down longtime dictator Ne Win, but a new group of generals replaced him and brutally crushed the protests in September, killing an estimated 3,000 people. Elections were held in 1990, but the military refused to recognize the landslide victory of Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party.
Suu Kyi, who has been detained for nearly 14 of the last 20 years, faces up to five years in prison on charges that she harbored an American who swam to her lakeside villa earlier this year—a violation of the terms of her house arrest.
Security has been increased in Rangoon over the past several weeks and was stepped up on Saturday in response to recent security threats, national police chief Brig-Gen Khin Yi said at a news conference Friday.
He said “external opposition groups and terrorists” had planned to carry out attacks during UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s visit last month, as well as near Insein prison, where Suu Kyi’s trial is being held. The targets also included buildings of the pro-junta Union Solidarity and Development Association, he said.
Khin Yi said authorities have arrested 15 people this year for planning to carry out “demolition activities” in Rangoon, Mandalay and other big cities, though he did not say how many were connected to the trial.

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American Intruder Has Another Seizure

RANGOON — An American on trial for entering the house of Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi had three short epileptic fits on Friday, police said, fueling concerns that his poor health could delay next week's verdict.

John W Yettaw, 53, was admitted to Yangon General Hospital on Monday after suffering a seizure in prison, said national police chief Brig-Gen. Khin Yi.
Burmese Police Chief Brig-Gen Khin Yi, speaks at a news conference in Naypyidaw last year.

(Photo: Getty Images)

Each of Yettaw's seizures on Friday lasted for a few seconds, the police chief told a news conference. He did not elaborate on the American's overall condition.

Yettaw swam uninvited to Suu Kyi's home in May, prompting the government to accuse the 64-year-old Nobel Peace laureate of violating her house arrest and the American of helping her to do so. Both Yettaw and Suu Kyi face five-year prison terms.

Critics say the ruling military has seized upon Yettaw's bizarre intrusion as an excuse to keep Suu Kyi jailed through next year's scheduled elections—the country's first in nearly two decades.

The charges against Suu Kyi, who has been detained for nearly 14 of the last 20 years, have refocused international outrage on Burma, which has been ruled by its military since 1962.

A verdict was scheduled for last Friday, but judges said they needed more time to sort through legal issues and rescheduled it for Tuesday.

Lawyers expect another postponement if Yettaw remains hospitalized, reasoning that courts in Burma don't generally make rulings in the absence of the accused.

The police chief declined to comment on the matter, saying only, "It depends on the decision of the court."

In addition to epilepsy, Yettaw reportedly suffers from diabetes and other health problems, including post traumatic stress disorder from his time in the US military.

Since he was taken into custody in early May, Yettaw has been on intermittent liquid diets on eight occasions, totaling 62 days, said Khin Yi.

Yettaw, a devout Mormon, told prison authorities that he was fasting due to his religious beliefs and not on a hunger strike, Khin Yi said.

Meanwhile, Khin Yi told reporters on Friday that Yettaw had connections with Burmese exiled groups, saying that a woman who was photographed together with Yettaw at an exiled group’s office in Mae Sot had been arrested in the Burmese border town of Myawaddy.

Khin Yi also alleged that in July, during UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s visit to Burma, Htay Aung of the Vigorous Burmese Student Warrior group was arrested after he attempted to detonate a bomb near Insein Prison where Suu Kyi’s trial was being held.

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Suu Kyi is ‘Part of the Problem’: Goh Chok Tong

Goh Chok Tong, Singapore’s former prime minister and current senior minister, said on Thursday that Burma’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is “part of the problem” facing the military-ruled country.

Goh told reporters at the Asia-Middle East Media Roundtable in Singapore that while the West sees Suu Kyi as the solution to Burma’s problems, she is also “part of problem” because she believes she is the government, according to Singapore’s Channel NewsAsia news network.

He also suggested Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), needed to seek a fresh mandate in the 2010 elections, saying that Suu Kyi should not dwell on the fact that her party’s victory in the 1990 elections was not recognized by the junta.

“That was 19 years ago, that’s history. If she realizes she has to be part of the solution, she has to offer some concessions, such as to publicly say that she would be in favor of the lifting of sanctions,” Goh was quoted as saying in The Malaysian Insider on Friday.

On Burma’s scheduled elections for next year, Goh said the junta should make sure that the elections were “fair, free and legitimate.” He added: “The process must involve parties that oppose you as well. Aung San Suu Kyi must be allowed to participate.”

The senior minister from the most developed country in Southeast Asia also said that military-ruled Burma’s economy has enormous growth potential.

“Myanmar [Burma] has the potential to boom in the next 10 years and it can be like Thailand’s today in 20 years’ time,” Goh said.

Responding to Goh’s comments, Aye Thar Aung, the secretary of the Committee Representing the People’s Parliament (CRPP), an umbrella group consisting of parties elected in 1990, rejected the idea that Suu Kyi is part of Burma’s problem.

“I disagree with Mr Goh Chok Tong because Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has openly said since 1988 that she could negotiate with the generals for the benefit of the country. She has also said that believes the military is needed to resolve the problems in Burma,” said Aye Thar Aung.

“Significantly, she also recognizes the importance of resolving ethnic issues. So she is still a key player in efforts to reach a resolution,” he added.

The argument that Suu Kyi is “part of the problem” is not new.

In early 2003, a number of Burma analysts, citing claims in the country’s state-run media that Suu Kyi was not willing to negotiate with the military, began to suggest that she had become an obstacle to political progress.

At the time, these analysts argued that Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt, a relative moderate among the ruling generals, should be regarded as the most important force for political change in Burma, not Suu Kyi. Khin Nyunt’s ouster in October 2004 put an end to that idea.

But the debate over Suu Kyi’s role in Burmese politics has recently been revived, with some Burma experts and international aid agencies saying that greater attention should be paid to the needs of ordinary Burmese citizens, rather than the plight of its most famous political prisoner. With the US and the European Union threatening tougher sanctions in response to Suu Kyi’s trial on charges of violating the terms of her house arrest, the debate has intensified.

In a recent interview with Asia Times online, Burmese historian Thant Myint-U, a former UN diplomat who is currently a visiting fellow with the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, called Suu Kyi’s strategy for reform “a gamble” that has not paid off.

He added that Suu Kyi’s approach has come at “the increasing cost of other roads not tested and opportunities lost as well as the enormous effect sanctions and aid cut-offs have had on ordinary people, especially the poorest and most vulnerable in the country.”

Meanwhile, Singaporean leaders, who are vocal advocates of engagement with the regime, have come under fire for being fundamentally ill-informed about Burma’s political realities.

In an interview last Sunday with The online Citizen, Singaporean Foreign Minister George Yeo incorrectly stated that Burma had been ruled by the military since its independence in 1948 and that Suu Kyi’s father, Aung San, had created the law that a Burmese citizen married to a foreign national could not take political office.

“The statements made by Singaporean leaders this week are undermining their own credibility,” said Debbie Stothard, the coordinator of Altsean, the Alternative Asean Network.

The CRPP’s Aye Thar Aung said that while regional leaders were welcome to play a role in resolving Burma’s political standoff, they should try to learn more about the country to get a better understanding of the roots of its problems.

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Women’s Groups Want to See Than Shwe before the ICC

Sixty five international women’s groups called on the UN Security Council on Friday to initiate action to bring Burma’s junta leaders before the International Criminal Court.

“We call for the UN Security Council to start with a Commission of Inquiry to investigate the horrific campaign of terror by the military regime and to refer Senior General Than Shwe and his cronies to the International Criminal Court for all crimes including for the imprisonment of Nobel Laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in violation of international law,” the groups said in a joint statement.

The statement—also signed by the Thailand-based Women's League of Burma (WLB)—was sent to all members of the UN Security Council and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

The statement said strong international intervention in Burma was needed to end systematic human rights abuses by the Burmese junta.

The statement was released to coincide with a UN debate on a report on Burma by Ban.

The WLB also called on the UN Security Council to act on the mandate of its resolution 1820, which is intended to protect civilians in conflict situations. The WLB said the Security Council should use the mandate of the resolution to halt the systemic use of rape and other sex crimes against ethnic women in Burma They had been brutalized for decades, the WLB said.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Desmond Tutu recently added his voice to calls for Than Shwe to be held legally accountable for human rights abuses in Burma.

In a tribute to his fellow Peace Prize laurate, Aung San Suu Kyi, Tutu said: “Burma's generals are criminals, and must be treated as such. Than Shwe should be held accountable for abominable atrocities: his soldiers rape ethnic women and children, they torture, mutilate and murder at will.”

He pointed out that more than 3,300 ethnic villages in eastern Burma have been destroyed—more than in Darfur—and civilians are deliberately targeted and shot on sight.

“The UN must establish a commission of inquiry, with a view to compiling evidence for prosecution,” said Tutu.

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Price of Cooking Oil Rises

The price of cooking oil products in Burma has increased, a result of the Health Ministry’s ban on some imported cooking oil products in July and unusual weather patterns.

The Health Ministry has banned 11 imported cooking oil products from Thailand and Malaysia for allegedly using harmful dyes.

Among the banned oils removed from the market are Sakura, Fisherman, one Prawn, Fried Fish, Crab Water Dragon and Red Star.

A cooking oil dealer in Pyay Division told The Irrawaddy on Friday: “Now it’s time for sesame. Early this year, the price of sesame oil was 60,000 kyat (US $60) for 60 viss (90 kilograms). The current price of Magway red sesame and black sesame is 80,000 kyat for 60 viss (90 kilograms). The price of Mandalay white sesame is 100,000 kyat ($100) for 60 viss (90 kilograms).

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Complicating the price issue, Magway and Mandalay divisions, the location of many cooking oil plantations, have experienced a drought, making for a poor sesame crop.

Moreover, Pyay and Mindon divisions were hit by unusually heavy rains, hurting the crops in those areas.

Traders say they expect that some dealers will invest more in sesame crops and the price of sesame may be lower next year.

A cooking oil dealer in Magway division told The Irrawaddy, “All beans dealers ran in the red last year. But this year they made a profit, and they will invest and buy sesame.”

The current price for palm oil is about 2,7oo kyat ($27) per viss (1.53 kilograms); groundnut and sesame oil are 3,100 kyat ($31).

An oil dealer at the Bayintnaung wholesale market in Rangoon said: “For the time being, the price and demand of groundnut oil are normal. Actually, most people in lower Burma don’t like sesame oil because it has a rather bitter taste, and it’s smell is not sweet like groundnut oil. But some high class people use it for their health.”

Consumers use on average 10 kilograms of cooking oil a year, amounting to some 560 million kilograms for 56 million Burmese people, according to data from the Myanmar [Burma] Edible Oil Dealers Association.

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US Senator to visit Burma

The US Democratic senator from Virginia, Jim Webb, on Thursday announced that he will visit Burma as part of a five-nation tour in Asia.

Webb, who will arrive on Sunday, will be the first US lawmaker to visit Burma in a decade. No other details about the trip were available.

Webb is chairman of the East Asia and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

In a statement, Webb said besides visiting Burma, he would visit Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. The purpose of the trip is to explore opportunities to advance US interests in Burma and the region, he said.

The statement said Webb has worked and traveled throughout Asia for nearly four decades, as a Marine Corps officer, a defense planner, a journalist, a novelist, a Department of Defense administrator and business consultant.

Meanwhile, the Burmese Prime Minister in Exile, Dr Sein Win of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, and officials of the National Council of the Union of Burma, have announced that they will present a plan to the United Nations on Friday proposing a way to unite the country.

The group will ask the UN Security Council and secretary-general to forward the plan to the military regime in Burma.

The plan, called “Proposal for National Reconciliation Towards Democracy & Development in Burma,” is the result of an alliance of pro-democracy parties and ethnic groups, both inside and outside Burma.

The plan sets out detailed steps for a transition to democracy in Burma, in association with members of the military regime.

Calling it a turning point in the history of Burma, Sein said: “For the first time, we have all come together to agree on a common platform for transition to democracy in Burma.”

“We are asking the United Nations and the international community to ensure that the regime engages in this dialogue, so that at last democracy and stability can be achieved in Burma,” he said.

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Security Beefed Up on University Ave

The Burmese military authorities on Thursday began beefing up security around the lakeside home of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, sources in Rangoon said.

“This morning, security personnel surrounded Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s house,” said a journalist in Rangoon who spoke on condition of anonymity.

University Avenue—where the Nobel Peace Prize laureate’s house stands—was open to traffic on Thursday morning, the sources said, but riot police blocked the road in the afternoon.

“At about 2 pm, the police stopped all motorists from driving down University Avenue. We had to divert to other roads,” a taxi driver in the city said.

Security forces were withdrawn from University Avenue in May after Suu Kyi was taken to Insein Prison to face trial for allegedly harboring American intruder John W Yettaw.

Thursday’s activity around University Avenue has fueled speculation that preparations are under way to bring the pro-democracy leader back safely to her home after the trial, the verdict on which is due on August 11.

Commenting on the security surrounding Suu Kyi’s house, her lawyer Kyi Win said, “In Burma, everything happens in unexpected ways.”

Meanwhile, reporters in the former capital have been notified of a press conference at the Narcotics Museum in Rangoon at 2 p.m. On Friday. The subject of the press conference is expected to be related to Suu Kyi, journalists said.

Suu Kyi’s lawyers, Kyi Win and Nyan Win, were allowed to meet with their client at Insein Prison on Thursday afternoon.

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Burmese Authorities Ban Chanting of Metta Sutta

Buddhist monks at the Myat Saw Nyi Naung Pagoda in Yenangyaung, Magway Divison, were warned on Wednesday not to hold a ceremony to chant the Metta Sutta—the Buddha’s discourse on loving-kindness.

The monks originally planned a 12-hour-long recitation, scheduled to start at 6 p.m. Wednesday, to mark the full moon day of the fifth month of the Burmese calendar, traditionally celebrated as “Metta Sutta Day” by Burmese Buddhists.

“We only intended to recite Buddhist sutras, including the Metta Sutta, to wish for all sentient beings to be peaceful and free from anxiety. But the authorities told us to call off our plans,” a monk from Yenangyaung told The Irrawaddy on Thursday.

Similar ceremonies are normally held throughout the country on this day. However, since a brutal crackdown on the monk-led protests of 2007, which featured marching monks reciting the Metta Sutta, most monasteries have been wary of publicly chanting the sutra.

“Banning chanting of the Buddhist sutras is a great insult to the Buddha, his teachings and his followers,” said Ashin Issariya, one of the leaders of the All Burma Monks Alliance (ABMA), the group that spearheaded the 2007 Saffron Revolution.

“There is no freedom of religion in Burma today,” he added, noting that banning large ceremonies also prevents people from making donations to monks—an important practice for Burmese Buddhists, who believe that providing monks with basic material requisites is the surest way to accumulate spiritual merit.

“The Buddha instructed monks to boycott any person who prevents donations to monks or obstructs the Dhamma,” he said. “I condemn this act by the authorities, and all other monks should also condemn it.”

According to Buddhist scripture, monks can boycott lay followers who violate religious principles by refusing to accept alms from them. This practice, known as “overturning the alms bowl,” is a powerful act of defiance, and one that has provoked a harsh response from Burmese authorities in the past.

Despite the ban on chanting the Metta Sutta at monasteries, on Wednesday the state-run New Light of Myanmar carried a commentary extolling its importance for practicing Buddhists.

“By chanting or reciting Metta Sutta, you send out to all sentient beings messages of your loving-kindness, compassion and goodwill. All who receive your good message reciprocate the same to you. You are immune from all dangers. You have no enemies, you have only friends,” wrote commentator Dr Khin Maung Nyunt.

Ashin Esika, a Burmese monk living in Sri Lanka, told The Irrawaddy: “I am greatly saddened to hear that the Burmese authorities prohibited monks from reciting the Buddha’s sutras. All monks and people need to unite and try their best to protect our religion. Moreover, all people under the sun must share kindness and compassion to uphold justice and peace in the world.”

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On the Run

MAE USU, Thailand — "If there is peace again, we will go back to our village," says the 60-year-old Karen woman, Bi Mae, as she holds her 4-month-old grandson in her arms in a makeshift bamboo hut.

But she knows well that she may never see some members of her family again or return to her village in Karen State, which has experienced a brutal civil war for more than 60 years.

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Just two weeks ago, Bi Mae and four of her grandchildren crossed into Thailand with more than 500 other Karen refugees, as gun fire echoed in the hills and news spread that the junta’s army was rounding up villagers for forced labor.

Since the beginning of June, fierce clashes between a joint force of the junta’s army and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) engaged the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), forcing some 4,000 Karen villagers and internally displaced persons from Ler Per Her camp in Burma to flee to Tha Song Yang in Thailand’s Tak Province for safety. Many refugees are also secretly living with friends along the border, but the exact number is impossible to determine.

Refugees are living at six sites. The Irrawaddy interviewed refugees crowded into the grounds behind a Thai ecotourism site at Mae Usu cave, only a few kilometers inside the Burmese-Thai border.

"Right now 1,998 people are on the list here. Most of them are women and children,” says Chaklo, a member of the Karen Youth Organization (KYO), one of the community-based organizations helping refugees.

To help support the refugees, the Thai Burma Border Consortium (TBBC), an alliance of NGOs working for humanitarian relief, has distributed rice, beans, fish paste and salt, while the French NGO, Solidarit?s, provided water and sanitary facilities. The UNHCR has provided plastic sheets and tarpaulins for the shelter.

However, torrential rains have been falling for many days, making life even more difficult. At the camp’s makeshift clinic—supported by Dr. Cynthia Maung, and her Backpack Health Workers Team—many patients receive treatment for serious gastrointestinal problems like diarrhea and dysentery that are common ailments in the rainy season. Children in the camp are particularly at risk, according to the medics. Some children sleep in the bamboo huts while others play on the muddy ground of the green fields.

"They need to learn,” said Chaklo. “We also are ready to do that. But the Thai authorities don’t want us to set up a school here because the site is temporary."

Traditionally, the Thai policy is to start out with a short-term solution to aid new Karen refugees. While there is fighting on Burmese soil, the authorities grant the civilians permission to cross the border. But if there is no fighting, the refugees will be sent back to Burma. Presently, there have been no further reports of fighting after the withdrawal of KNLA troops from their military bases.

But there are ongoing reports of abuses by DKBA forces—forced recruitment, forced labor and money/food/livestock extortion—causing more people to flee and cross into Thailand. As a result, the refugees, for now, have been allowed to remain.

On July 9, Tassana Vichaithanapat, the director of the Foreign Affairs Division of the Operations Centre for Displaced Persons in the Ministry of Interior, visited one of the new sites, Nuh Bo.

During his visit, he met with refugee representatives, Thai district-level authorities and military officials and urged the authorities and international agencies to continue to provide humanitarian support while the Thai government tries to find a durable solution or until the displaced people are able to return to their homes, according to the TBBC.

Also, the Tha Song Yang district committee, which includes military, border police and UNHCR representatives, met on July 15 to consider possible solutions: an immediate return to Burma, relocation to Mae La refugee camp, or to open a new refugee camp at the site where the refugees are currently staying.

"Finally, they agreed that the refugees should stay where they are until the end of the rainy season.

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Drugs Seized at Rangoon Airport and Outside Tachilek

More than 200,000 amphetamine tablets have been seized at Rangoon International Airport and near the Burmese-Thai border town of Tachelik, state-owned The New Light of Myanmar reported on Wednesday.

Twenty thousand tablets were found at the airport in the possession of a passenger as he prepared to fly from Rangoon to Sittwe, capital of Arakan State in western Burma. He was identified as Kyaw Soe Win.

The other haul, of 200,000 tablets, was made when police stopped two motorcyclists on the road from Mae Sat to Tachilek.

Both hauls were made on August 1, the newspaper reported.A police official in Naypyidaw, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the report to The Irrawaddy and said a major drug dealer suspected of involvement is hiding in Thailand.

The Bangkok English language daily Bangkok Post reported on August 1 that a major Burmese drug trafficker, Chen Tafa, aka Ar Fa, had fled to a Thai village, Ban Arunothai, in Chiang Mai's Chiang Dao district.

Chen Tafa, 46, who is a former close aide of the late Burmese drug baron Khun Sa, fled to Thailand after Burmese authorities seized a huge amount of drugs from a six-wheel truck at a border checkpoint opposite Chiang Rai's Mae Sai district on July 10, the newspaper reported.

The truck was heading to Burma's Tachilek when it was stopped and searched.

On July 10, Burmese police in Tachilek reported finding about 1,000 kilograms of heroin and 340,000 amphetamine tablets in a truck on the outskirts of the border town.

Later, more than 150,000 amphetamine tablets were also seized in the town.

The majority of drugs smuggled out of Burma end up in Thailand, according to a report released by the US State Department in March. The report said Burma is a significant player in the manufacture and regional trafficking of amphetamine-type stimulants.

Burma is listed as the second largest producer of heroin in the world after Afghanistan, according to experts from the United Nations and the United States.

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Burmese Migrants to Hang for Murder in Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR — A Malaysian court on Thursday sentenced six Burmese immigrants to death for murdering a man in a gang fight, a lawyer said.

The Kuala Lumpur High Court found the men guilty of using a machete and a screwdriver to kill 21-year-old laborer Sadib Husin on June 26, 2005, said attorney AS Dhaliwal, who represents three of the accused.

The men had pleaded innocent, saying they were present during the street clash between rival Burmese gangs but were not involved in killing Sadib, Dhaliwal said.

Prosecution witnesses, including Husin's brother, who was at the scene, testified that they saw the six men assaulting Husin.

The six will appeal, Dhaliwal said.

Malaysia has a mandatory death penalty for various offenses including murder, drug trafficking or crimes using firearms.

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Burmese Army Equipped with New Arms

The 400,000-strong Burmese army is now almost fully armed with locally manufactured MA-series weapons, according to several sources within the armed forces and rebel groups.

The sources told The Irrawaddy that the Burmese army—known as the “Tatmadaw”—had equipped all frontline battalions with MA1, MA2, MA3 or MA4 automatic assault rifles.

According to a weapons Web site, securityarms.com, the MA series was manufactured with the help of arms contractor Israeli Military Industries, and was designed similar to the Israeli Galil rifle.

The weapons are expected to be used in conflicts with ethnic rebel groups, in particular the Karen National Union, as the Tatmadaw seeks to extinguish the country’s 60-year-plus insurgency. The Burmese armed forces have one of the world’s most notorious records for atrocities and human rights abuses, such as killing civilians, raping women and conscripting children.

Since the 1950s, the Tatmadaw has traditionally employed German-made G-3 weapons. However, the G-3 assault rifle was considered too heavy for use in jungle warfare and, as the Burmese generals had endured decades of conflict with ethnic groups in Burma’s mountainous border regions, they began manufacture of the MA series in 2002, presumably after signing a license agreement with Israel Military Industries.

The MA1 and MA2 assault rifles are shorter and lighter than the G3, but not as powerful, said the sources.

The MA3 is an assault carbine, basically an MA1 with a side-folding stock, and the MA4 is a grenadier weapon, essentially an MA1 equipped with a single-shot grenade launcher.

Sources told The Irrawaddy that the weapons were manufactured at several factories in Burma, but the main factory is reportedly called Ka Pa Sa No 1, and is situated near Rangoon’s Inya Lake.

Sai Sheng Murng, the deputy spokesman of the rebel Shan State Army-South (SSA), said, “The MA1 and MA2 assault rifles are not heavy, so they are good for carrying to the frontlines. But they are not powerful like the G-3.”

“The MA1s and MA2s are similar to our M16s. In fact, we can use their ammunition in our M16 rifles, but they cannot use our ammunition in their rifles,” he said.

The Burmese army is one of the most battle-hardened forces in Asia, having fought almost continuously against ethnic insurgents and communist guerillas for more than six decades.

However, following the brutal suppression of student-led demonstrations in 1988, the United States and later the European Union imposed an arms embargo on the Burmese regime.

At the time, Burmese democracy activists and international sympathizers lobbied the West German government to prevent sales of G-3 weapons from the Fritz Werner arms manufacturing company going to the Burmese junta.

The German arms manufacturers registered themselves in Burma in the 1990s as Myanmar Fritz Werner Industries Co Ltd, an electrical and electronics company.

However, the photograph of a Japanese journalist, Kenji Nagai, being shot during protests in 2007 by a Burmese soldier holding what would appear to be a G-3 rifle, raised doubts as to whether local production of the German assault rifle was ongoing.

Despite the Western arms embargo, the Burmese military regime has no shortage of arms suppliers—Israel, Russia, Ukraine and China are reportedly the main players.

Meanwhile, recent reports have indicated that Burma has purchased nuclear material from North Korea and harbors ambitions of creating a nuclear arsenal.

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Verdict expected in Burma on Tuesday

A verdict is expected on Tuesday against the leader of Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi, the country which on Saturday commemorates the 21st anniversary of the 1988 student uprising which spread throughout the country.

The UK Minister for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Ivan Lewis has marked the anniversary by issuing a tribute to Nobel prize-winner Suu Kyi and all of Burma's political prisoners.

“The students were joined in their protests by people from all walks of life – saffron-robed monks, teachers, young children, housewives and doctors. A general strike took place on August 8, 1988, an auspicious date. But Burma’s first popular uprising was put down the next month in the most bloody and ruthless manner. A brutal repression of the people that has continued to this day, and which we last witnessed in the beating and killing of monks and civilians in November 2008,” he said.

The protest brought Aung San Suu Kyi to the forefront of the struggle for democracy, freedom and civil liberties.

“She is currently subject to a political show trial and faces the prospect of a prison sentence on August 11 – a date the regime have set to avoid the anniversary of 8888, and because the Senior General believes 11 is his lucky number. Relying on numbers, lucky or otherwise, is a poor substitute for a clear strategic choice of an inclusive democracy,” Mr Lewis said.

There are over 2,100 other political prisoners being held in Burma, now called Myanmar by its rulers.

“On the anniversary of 8888, I want to pay tribute to all Burma’s political prisoners. Their courage and resilience in the face of the abuse of their fundamental human rights is humbling. I also want to repeat the international community’s call to the Burmese regime to release unconditionally all political prisoners, and commit to a genuine and inclusive process of dialogue and national reconciliation. Until they do so, future elections, such as those they plan for 2010 will have absolutely no legitimacy,” he said.

Ms Suu Kyi was put on trial after an America, John Yettaw, swam across a lake behind her home and broke into her home, where she had been held under house arrest for 6 years, although she has spent almost 14 of the past 20 years under house arrest or in prison. Her party won 82 per cent of the votes in 1990 but the Burmese regime refused to recognise the result.

She was due to be released this year and the break-in has provided a pretext for keeping her locked up, her followers believe.

International pressure has been building up. Her arrest was ruled illegal under both Burmese and international law by the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention, while US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the trial “outrageous”.

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Burma Braces for Verdict of Aung San Suu Kyi

Burma's state-run newspaper, The New Light of Myanmar is warning citizens not to incite protests on Friday, when the verdict for opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be handed down.

Security has increased near the Insein prison in Rangoon, where the pro-democracy leader has been on trial for more than two months on charges of violating the terms of her house arrest in May.

She faces five years in prison for allowing an American man to stay at her lakeside home, after he swam there uninvited last May.

One of Aung San Suu Kyi's attorneys, Nyan Win, told reporters that she is holding up well but is "preparing for the worst." He says she has asked for several English, French and Burmese language books to pass her time in prison if she is convicted.

Critics say Burma's military junta is using the trial as a pretext to keep her from participating in next year's elections.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon says the regime is missing "an important opportunity" to engage with the international community, especially those who want to see Aung San Suu Kyi go free.

The 64-year-old Nobel Peace Prize laureate has has spent 14 of the past 20 years under some form of detention, mostly house arrest.

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North Korea Helping Burma Develop Nuclear Weapons

Burma may be trying to develop a nuclear bomb, according to accounts by two Burmese defectors, the Sydney Morning Herald reported August 1.

The two defectors—who had never met—both described a secret nuclear complex that Burma was constructing with North Korean help, much of it in caves tunneled into a mountain at Naung Laing in northern Burma.

Prof. Desmond Ball, who has closely studied the Burmese military, and Phil Thornton, a journalist and expert on Burma, interviewed the two defectors over a period of two years. They concluded that if the defectors’ reports were true, Burma could be nuclear-capable and producing a bomb every year after 2014.

“The evidence is preliminary and needs to be verified, but this is something that would completely change the regional security status quo,” said the head of Thailand’s Institute of Security and International Studies, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, on July 31. “It would move Myanmar [Burma] from not just being a pariah state, but a rogue state—that is, one that jeopardizes the security and well-being of its immediate neighbors.”

Burma is known to be constructing a civilian nuclear reactor with Russia’s help. Both Russia and Burma claim the reactor will be put under international safeguards.

One of the defectors was an officer with a secret nuclear battalion in the Burmese Army, sent to Russia for training. The other was a former executive of one of the military regime’s main business partners, who handled nuclear contracts with Russia and North Korea.

Although defectors’ accounts are not always accurate, these do match with other reports from the region. “All we can say is these two guys never met up with each other, never knew of each other’s existence, and yet they both tell the same story basically,” said Professor Ball.

With states like North Korea and Pakistan possessing the bomb, it is frighteningly easy for rogue nations to get hold of nuclear technology today. Israel destroyed a nuclear reactor being built by North Korea in Syria only two years ago. If Pyongyang is helping Burma get the bomb, the big question is, who else has it helped?

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Burma Isn’t Broke

The drawn-out show trial of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi has once again focused attention on Burma and sparked discussion on how to engage the regime. U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently suggested development aid as a carrot to coax the generals to talk. But contrary to popular belief, the junta isn’t as poor as it claims to be.

Burma has emerged as a major regional supplier of natural gas in Asia-Pacific. At present, most of this gas is sold to Thailand, but new fields will shortly provide for vast sales to China. Rising gas prices and increasing demand have caused the value of Burma’s gas exports to soar, driving a projected balance-of-payments surplus for this fiscal year of around $2.5 billion. Burma’s international reserves will rise to over $5 billion-worth by the end of the year.

These revenues make next to no impact on the country’s official fiscal accounts, however. The reason is simple: Burma’s U.S. dollar gas earnings are recorded in the government’s published accounts at the local currency’s “official” exchange rate of around six kyat to a dollar. This rate overvalues the currency by nearly 200 times its market value and undervalues the local-currency value of Burma’s gas earnings by an equivalent amount. Recorded at the official rate, Burma’s gas earnings translate into less than 1% of budget receipts. By contrast, if the same gas earnings are recorded at the market exchange rate, their contribution would more than double total state receipts, and largely eliminate Burma’s fiscal deficit.

The motivation for this sleight of hand is probably to “quarantine” Burma’s foreign exchange earnings from the country’s public accounts, thereby making them available to the regime and its cronies. This accounting is facilitated by Burma’s state-owned Foreign Trade Bank and some willing offshore banks.

Flush with these funds, Burma’s military rulers have embarked upon a spending binge of epic proportions, including indulging themselves in the creation of a new administrative capital named Naypyidaw, or “abode of kings.” They are also buying nuclear technologies of uncertain use from Russia and possibly from North Korea.

This kind of behavior is par for the course in Burma. The military junta took power in a 1962 coup and has consistently expropriated the country’s output while dismantling its basic market institutions. There are no effective property rights in Burma, and the rule of law is weak. Macroeconomic policy making is capricious, unpredictable and ill-informed. The regime spends greatly in excess of its revenue and resorts to the printing presses to finance its spending, creating inflation. Most of Burma’s prominent corporations are owned by the military, and the country is judged by Transparency International as the second most corrupt in the world.

Burma’s fall from grace has been incredible to watch. The country was once one of the richest in Southeast Asia and the world’s largest rice exporter. Today, Burma can barely feed itself. In 1950, the per capita of GDP of Burma and its neighbor, Thailand, were virtually identical. Today, Thailand’s GDP is seven times that of its former peer, despite very similar religious, cultural and physical endowments.

The people of Burma are poor, but the regime that oppresses them is not. Changing this equation is the true key to economic development in Burma, and the outcome to which the efforts of the rest of the world should be directed.

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